The future of steering locks will be determined by the global need for vehicles that require a low cost solution. Value for money is the key phrase when selling cars in emerging markets. Vehicles must not only be at a low purchase price but be cost effective to run and maintain. Therefore, the simple solution provided by a proven design such as a mechanical steering lock will continue to be required. The same is likely for commercial vehicles in both developed and emerging markets where the driving factors are performance and cost.

On higher grade passenger cars, Smart Key technology and the associated trend for push button start will mean that an electric solution is more likely. Electronically controlled locking systems (either steering, transmission or parking brake) only require an electronic code to be sent to unlock the system, whereas mechanical or electro-mechanical locks require the driver to physically disengage the lock which defeats the convenience of the new technologies.

SBD believe that transmission locks and (within the next 5 years) electronic parking brake systems are likely to gain market share compared to electric steering locks. This is because of their advantage of being easier to integrate across multiple platforms and models and have the potential of serving a dual purpose, therefore eliminating one system from the vehicle.

In North America, legislation allows immobilisers to be considered as an alternative to a physical lock design and this has inevitably led to a trend for deletion of physical locks to save cost.

Alternative fuelled vehicles were predicted to adopt many more new technologies in their overall design, but so far SBD have not yet seen much evidence of this. Items such as Steer-by-Wire and Electric Wheel Hub motors have not reached volume production models. If and when they do they are likely to be accompanied by transmission lock designs or braking solutions once they are legally approved.

Globally, the trend for new technology that is threatening mechanical steering lock volumes is almost balanced by the future demand from emerging markets for low cost vehicles. These models require a simple, tried and tested solution and suppliers that can demonstrate the lowest weight, lowest cost but suitable strong designs will claim a significant competitive advantage.

The challenge for existing steering lock suppliers will be to capture the business for these new low cost models away from cheap local suppliers, especially for domestic brands in countries like India and China where there is a strong growth in sales for domestic brands.

For more details on this research, download the information bulletin or contact Juanita Appleby by email on jappleby@sbd.co.uk