David Alexander, ITS and Telematics Senior Specialist, answers questions about the market status, consumer perceptions and future outlook for Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS).
Q. ADAS is a generic term for a lot of different safety and convenience-related technologies. What are the different classifications that SBD considers when researching and consulting on ADAS developments and trends?
David Alexander: ADAS can be categorised in many different ways; for example, by sensor (camera, radar, lidar, accelerometer), by direction (forward, lateral, rearward, internal), or by function (informational, warning, mitigation, control).
Q. How has the fitment strategy for these systems changed over the last 5 years?
DA: Up until about 2005, most ADAS features had only been available as individual options, and even then only on luxury vehicles. As the technology has matured, ADAS options on higher volume models have become more widely available, and at the upper end of the market some technologies have become standard fitment. In 2010, we will see the first availability of features such as Adaptive Cruise Control and Lane Departure Warning on the new Ford Focus, a medium family car. We believe that other manufacturers will follow.
Q. Which features are most common in the European market?
Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC) and Intelligent Speed Adaption (ISA) are the most commonly available ADAS features on new cars in Europe. Manually-set ISA is now becoming standard on many German and French luxury cars. As a low-cost feature with a benefit that is easy for buyers to understand, it is likely to grow in popularity. ACC has recently been enhanced with the ability to work at low speed down to a complete stop and is seen as both a convenience and a safety feature.
Q. What is the future outlook over the next 2-3 years for both ADAS availability and drivers’ perception of this technology?
DA: We expect to see strong growth in the availability of ADAS across the family vehicle market, extending into the super-mini segment. What is less certain is how strong the buying public’s reaction will be to these options. Cost has come down to the level where many manufacturers and suppliers think it is both affordable and good value when compared to other options such as sound systems and leather seats. To be successful however, vehicle manufacturers – and perhaps suppliers too – are going to have to invest in educating both dealer sales staff and the general public on why they should opt for ADAS.
Q. Any insight into the longer term, 3-10 years away?
DA: ADAS technology will certainly cost less as time goes on and volumes grow. Some sensors will also become routinely integrated into vehicles as more functions are developed. At some point it will become cheap enough for manufacturers to build some ADAS sensors into every vehicle and to charge the customer by the number of features activated. Then it would be possible to upgrade functionality later on. For example a low-cost, forward-looking, CMOS camera can provide input for Lane Departure Warning, Automatic Headlamp Controls, Traffic Sign Recognition and Obstacle Detection.
The other major factor that could drive up numbers would be government action. Recent action in the USA and Europe has made Electronic Stability Control mandatory from 2012 on new vehicles (cars and trucks in the USA, cars in the EU), and the EC has revealed plans to make Lane Departure Warning compulsory on heavy trucks at some time in the near future. Accident prevention is a continuous area of attention for governments, vying for attention with the recent focus on CO2 emissions.
David Alexander is the author of a new series of research from SBD on ADAS market and technical trends. For more information on SBD’s ADAS research, contact Juanita Appleby at jappleby@sbd.co.uk.
